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能源轉型的新地緣政治 A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation

發言人:挖地雷, on Jan/18/2019    10:07:24 (IP code: X.X.179.119)
 

2019 年一月出爐【能源轉型的新地緣政治
請注意再生能源日益增多的部署已引發了全球性的能源轉型,這對地緣政治產生了重大影響,國際再生能源署總幹事 Adnan Z. Amin 在德國、挪威政府的支持下和阿拉伯聯合大公國於 2018 年 1 月召集了全球委員會。

Aware that the growing deployment of renewables has set in motion a global energy transformation with significant implications for geopolitics, Adnan Z. Amin, the Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), with the support of the Governments of Germany, Norway and the United Arab Emirates, convened the Global Commission in January 2018.
該委員會由冰島前總統 Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson 擔任主席,由來自政界、能源、經濟、貿易、環境和發展領域的各種傑出領袖們組成。這委員會是個獨立機構,成員們以個人身份參與。

Chaired by former President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson of Iceland, the Commission comprises a diverse group of distinguished leaders from the worlds of politics, energy, economics, trade, environment and development. The Commission is an independent body with members serving in their individual capacity.
 

Record ID: 1547777244   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:挖地雷, on Jan/18/2019    10:30:21 (IP code: X.X.179.119)
 

再生能源為什麼會改變地緣政治 Why renewables will transform geopolitics
一、大多數國家都有很適用的某類型再生能源,不像化石燃料只在特定地區產出。

First, renewable energy resources are available in one form or another in most countries, unlike fossil fuels which are concentrated in specific geographic locations. This reduces the importance of current energy choke points, such as the narrow channels on widely used sea routes that are critical to the global supply of oil.

二、化石燃料是只用一次的庫存品,而再生能源因循環流通而難以阻斷與干擾其供應。

Second, most renewables take the form of flows, whilst fossil fuels are stocks. Energy stocks can be stored, which is useful; but they can be used only once. In contrast, energy flows do not exhaust themselves and are harder to disrupt.

三、分散式意味著民主與進歩 (類比一下電腦從 Mainframe 到 PC)

Third, renewable energy sources can be deployed at almost any scale and lend themselves better to decentralized forms of energy production and consumption. This adds to the democratizing effects of renewable energy.

四、再生能源的邊際成本幾乎為零,成本也會不斷下降。

Fourth, renewable energy sources have nearly zero marginal costs, and some of them, like solar and wind, enjoy cost reductions of nearly 20% for every doubling of capacity. This enhances their ability to drive change but requires regulatory solutions to ensure stability and profitability in the power sector.
 

Record ID: 1547777244R001   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:挖地雷, on Jan/18/2019    10:55:35 (IP code: X.X.179.119)
 > 再生能源為什麼會改變地緣政治

再生能源會改變哪些地緣政治
一、全球權力版圖大挪移

Power Shift

For two centuries, the geographic concentration of oil, natural gas and coal reserves has helped configure the international geopolitical landscape. Coal and steam power drove the Industrial Revolution which, in turn, shaped geopolitics in the 19th century. Since then, control over the production of and trade in oil has been a key feature of 20th century power politics. A transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy could transform global power relations no less than the historical shifts from wood to coal and from coal to oil.

Repositioning of states
The vulnerability of fossil fuel exporters
Energy security for fossil fuel importers
The rise of renewable energy leaders
New actors: citizens, cities and corporations

二、國家間的新關係

New relations between states

Renewable energy will not merely influence the balance of power between countries. It will also reconfigure alliances and trade flows, and create new interdependencies around electric grids and new commodities.

Shifting alliances (OPEC 的話語權會被削弱)
New geographies of trade

三、國家政策的再思考

Rethinking energy statecraft

States have long used energy resources as instruments of foreign policy, a practice known as energy statecraft. In a world powered mostly by renewables, energy resources will lose much of their currency as geopolitical instruments. In the words of former US President Jimmy Carter: “No one can ever embargo the sun or interrupt its delivery to us”. At the same time, a reliance on other commodities, such as electricity, biofuels, emerging fuels like hydrogen, or critical materials, could create new forms of dependence and vulnerability.
 

Record ID: 1547777244R002   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:挖地雷, on Jan/18/2019    14:23:55 (IP code: X.X.179.119)
   兩個世紀以來,石油、天然氣和煤炭儲量的地理分佈導引了國際地緣政治格局的構建。19 世紀時,煤炭和蒸汽動力推動了工業革命,而工業革命則形塑了地緣政治的生態。接著進入了 20 世紀後,控制石油的生產和交易一直是強權政治的關鍵要素。從化石燃料到再生能源的轉變可以改變全球的電力關係,它所造成的變化會不亞於從木材到煤炭以及從煤炭到石油的歷史轉變。

For two centuries, the geographic concentration of oil, natural gas and coal reserves has helped configure the international geopolitical landscape. Coal and steam power drove the Industrial Revolution which, in turn, shaped geopolitics in the 19th century. Since then, control over the production of and trade in oil has been a key feature of 20th century power politics. A transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy could transform global power relations no less than the historical shifts from wood to coal and from coal to oil.
 

Record ID: 1547777244R003   From: 台灣

回信 發言人:Cobra, on Jan/19/2019    07:00:40 (IP code: X.X.90.127)
 Industrial Revolution 或說是工業革命或產業革命, 像是一個超級大的 hub, 所有人類社群活動中重要議題的歷史回顧, 都可以標示出其接上時的深刻鑿痕. 在 20 世紀初的第二次工業革命中, 能源使用的面向才由煤礦轉變到石油, 這時號稱第一次工業革命所孕育的左派右派打成一片, 生產工具由靳尼紡紗機與動力織布機變成各種電氣怪物... 後浪上革命家滾動不止的 rethinking 當然就打在前浪的身上, 原來日本浮世繪浪花的手是大海嘯. 

Record ID: 1547777244R004   From: 台灣

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